| | [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities |  |
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+9AndreiTM F.B.I BobTheBear mantis33 Rouchien jcelite Biceuri® kaspar4o0o Sioc 13 posters |
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Sioc
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|  Subject: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities ![[RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Icon_minitime](https://2img.net/i/fa/icon_minitime.gif) Tue 04 May 2010, 19:27 | |
| MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities v1.20 DOWNLOAD: http://sioc.webs.com/MyBrute-ToolPack.zip (after having clicked on that link, click on "Request download ticket" then on "Download") Summary:
- This tool allows to determine the probabilities a given brute gets a given title during a tournament on any COM/FR/ES server,
- It is based on a Monte-Carlo algorithm with Gaussian distibutions for the parameters simulating noise.
- It makes use of the full distribution of brutes' levels on a given server (all top-1000 rankings on the website).
- This is a model and as such it tries to simplify reality by capturing the main characteristics with only a few parameters and ignoring less important ones.
It is therefore an approximation and the resulting probabilities heavily rely on empirical parameters and should not be taken as accurate. They only provide an order of magnitude.
Screenshot: The file itself contains all explanations on how to use it: - Spoiler:
Examples:
- For the time being, kn2-oicbuu6j is still padawan and level 330. This is one of the best hyper-agis of the whole game. Here are the probabilities given by the tool if this brute enters a tournament now:
- Spoiler:
| Hour | Title | Probability of getting this title | Standard deviation | #brutes remaining | | 11h | Desert Batterer | 99.77% | 4.79% | 2'048 | | 12h | Sticking Plaster Ripper | 99.41% | 7.66% | 1'024 | | 13h | Richter Thumper | 98.96% | 10.14% | 512 | | 14h | Iron Fist | 97.89% | 14.37% | 256 | | 15h | Vengeful Flame | 95.76% | 20.15% | 128 | | 16h | Berserk Soul | 91.83% | 27.39% | 64 | | 17h | Hemogoblin | 84.57% | 36.12% | 32 | | 18h | Sword Swallower | 72.01% | 44.89% | 16 | | 19h | Satan's Biceps | 53.99% | 49.84% | 8 | | 20h | Dentist of Chaos | 31.96% | 46.63% | 4 | | 21h | Brutal Legend | 13.27% | 33.93% | 2 |
- A level 110 hyper-agi brute like Nasic's saptdutieeu (still padawan for the time being) would have the following probabilities (BL probability is < 1/50'000 therefore shown as 0):
- Spoiler:
| Hour | Title | Probability of getting this title | Standard deviation | #brutes remaining | | 11h | Desert Batterer | 95.94% | 19.74% | 2'048 | | 12h | Sticking Plaster Ripper | 91.77% | 27.48% | 1'024 | | 13h | Richter Thumper | 83.94% | 36.71% | 512 | | 14h | Iron Fist | 70.66% | 45.53% | 256 | | 15h | Vengeful Flame | 50.38% | 50.00% | 128 | | 16h | Berserk Soul | 27.04% | 44.42% | 64 | | 17h | Hemogoblin | 8.89% | 28.46% | 32 | | 18h | Sword Swallower | 1.40% | 11.73% | 16 | | 19h | Satan's Biceps | 0.07% | 2.72% | 8 | | 20h | Dentist of Chaos | 0.00% | 0.45% | 4 | | 21h | Brutal Legend | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2 |
- A level 83 strength brute like 6.aii's sioc-emquux would have the following probabilities (BL probability is < 1/50'000 therefore shown as 0):
- Spoiler:
| Hour | Title | Probability of getting this title | Standard deviation | #brutes remaining | | 11h | Desert Batterer | 93.97% | 23.80% | 2'048 | | 12h | Sticking Plaster Ripper | 87.17% | 33.44% | 1'024 | | 13h | Richter Thumper | 75.50% | 43.01% | 512 | | 14h | Iron Fist | 57.18% | 49.48% | 256 | | 15h | Vengeful Flame | 33.40% | 47.16% | 128 | | 16h | Berserk Soul | 12.74% | 33.34% | 64 | | 17h | Hemogoblin | 2.48% | 15.56% | 32 | | 18h | Sword Swallower | 0.16% | 4.05% | 16 | | 19h | Satan's Biceps | 0.01% | 0.77% | 8 | | 20h | Dentist of Chaos | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4 | | 21h | Brutal Legend | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2 |
Although some probabilities are shown as equal to zero this is an artifact only due to the fact the probability is so small that there were not enough Monte-Carlo runs in order to capture a single event.
Requirements:
- Requires M$ Excel (it won't work with OpenOffice)!
- Most likely does not work on Excel for MAC.
- When opening the file you have to accept the execution of macros (or if you are not prompted go to "Tools" -> "Options" -> "Security" -> "Macro security" -> "Medium" and open again the file).
- You need write access to the directory from where the application is running (when updating the distribution it is saving the html code of each page in a temporary file).
- Works for all three servers (COM, FR, ES).
- Was tested on Excel 2003 only. Should work on Excel 2007 or 2010 though.
Version history:
- 1.20: Update for the Accept-Language FIX under VBA.
- 1.10: Ability to find probabilities that are specific to tomorrow's tournament as a function of brutes that effectively registered or may register. Download speed improved.
- 1.01: Ability to specify the fraction of brutes entering a tournament as a function of the brute level.
- 1.00: First public release with full Monte-Carlo dynamics and full distribution of the brutes' levels on each server.
- 0.20: Partial Monte-Carlo (mention of the resulting probabilities in some posts in the Forum).
- 0.10: Using averages with no fluctuations at all (mention of the resulting probabilities in some posts in the Forum).
Last edited by Sioc on Sun 22 Sep 2013, 15:08; edited 24 times in total | |
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kaspar4o0o
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Posts : 371
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Age : 31
Location : Bulgaria
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Biceuri®
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Posts : 591
Join date : 2009-05-31
Age : 40
Location : Everywhere
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Wed 05 May 2010, 00:49 | |
| Nice work Sioc, as always  Congratz. | |
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jcelite
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Posts : 620
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 33
Location : España
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Wed 05 May 2010, 01:08 | |
| its incredible all things you are doing..  bravo for you sioc | |
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Rouchien
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Posts : 428
Join date : 2009-12-06
Location : Farming in Saint Haven
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Wed 05 May 2010, 03:15 | |
| Uber Tools man! Excellent work!! | |
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mantis33
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Posts : 1969
Join date : 2009-04-16
Age : 35
Location : The Ohio State University
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Wed 05 May 2010, 04:03 | |
| I understood two words! :p Jk, I actually understood all of them, but I feel like 80% of the people here did not.  | |
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BobTheBear
admin
Posts : 4102
Join date : 2009-05-15
Location : Scotland!
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Wed 05 May 2010, 09:45 | |
| Impressive stuff, no doubt! (As always) You should get in touch with the BBC News channel over here. We have an election tomorrow night and I reckon they could use you to run the swing-ometer! Still Mr Stats under that new mod skin ..... | |
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F.B.I
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Posts : 2334
Join date : 2009-11-07
Age : 33
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Wed 05 May 2010, 11:06 | |
| yes sioc how old are you your like stephen hawkings  | |
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AndreiTM
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Posts : 1432
Join date : 2009-11-14
Location : RO
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Sat 08 May 2010, 08:26 | |
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Sioc
admin
Posts : 2785
Join date : 2009-12-19
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Mon 10 May 2010, 21:57 | |
| I've added a little feature that may be interesting: - Spoiler:
It can now determine probabilities that are very specific to tomorrow's tournament: for each brute that may beat your brute (up to 3 standard deviations) it will check if the brute has already registered, if it may still register, and if it will not enter tomorrow's tournament because it was in today's. For example this should now allow to spot potentially easier tournaments before registering ;-) | |
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OviTron
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Posts : 2704
Join date : 2010-05-03
Age : 34
Location : At Home
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Mon 10 May 2010, 22:04 | |
| sioc never stops surpriseing us  ovi | |
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vollaufdienuesse
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Posts : 768
Join date : 2009-08-21
Age : 36
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Mon 10 May 2010, 22:12 | |
| thats all theorie with my seed luck in tourneys the chance to reach a higher rank than sword swallower is always 0% | |
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OviTron
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Posts : 2704
Join date : 2010-05-03
Age : 34
Location : At Home
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Mon 10 May 2010, 22:16 | |
| yes volla but you have to admit that sioc has cool tools ovi | |
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Sioc
admin
Posts : 2785
Join date : 2009-12-19
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Mon 10 May 2010, 22:30 | |
| - vollaufdienuesse wrote:
- thats all theorie
Not 100% correct ;-) Parameters are adjusted with real brute levels distribution + with information about brutes that effectively registered or may not register. And the standard deviation gives a rough idea of what may be the "luck factor" arising from the seeds ;-) Of course fights between brutes have not much in common with the rules of the real game which was imo anyway not a practicable route from the point of view of CPU-time requirement. But the goal was nevertheless to stick as much as possible to what you could expect in practice without having to load a CPU for days... :-) | |
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Nasic
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Posts : 655
Join date : 2009-11-19
Age : 36
Location : Holland
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Mon 10 May 2010, 23:07 | |
| Hahaha, a 0.07% chance to get Biceps for my Sappy Neat tool like your others. | |
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kenichiro
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Posts : 431
Join date : 2009-05-23
| | Subject: Re: [RELEASE] MyBrute Tournament Title Probabilities Wed 12 May 2010, 07:30 | |
| Another great tool, Sioc! Thank you! | |
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