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 How long to wait before becoming BL

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Sioc
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PostSubject: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 07:05

MT made sort of a pyramidal structure for their tournament rankings:

In order to have 1 brute that is Brutal Legend there must be at least 64 brutes who are DOC.
In order to have 1 brute that is DOC there must be at least 64 brutes who are SB.
... etc.
... and there is no tournament until there are 64 brutes at a given ranking.

So my question was: how long until I could get BL and raise a brute without that damn level reset?

Just to get an order of magnitude this means that if you could enter a new tournament after having won the first one then in order to generate 1 brute that is Brutal Legend after 1 day of game it is required that there are 64^11 padawan brutes, i.e. about 73 million of billion brutes... but this number is significantly reduced over a period of several days:

Assuming a long-term average of 3'000 new brutes per day and that 70% of the brutes enter their daily tournaments, then the *first* BL brute would appear after app. 200 days !

First BL tournament would appear after about 230 days.

But if Muxxu brute doesn't have that much success and only 1'000 new brutes are created per day and only 40% of brutes enter their daily tournament then the first BL would appear after about one year...

So, if you want to get BL be prepared for a long-term effort... ;-)

Of course after the first BL brutes have appeared you could theoretically become BL in only 11 days.

(if you want to play by yourself with the figures here's the Open Office file: http://ifile.it/ghnafze/MyBrute2-FirstBL.zip )

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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 08:01

sioc, I'm working on getting an update from yaboi, since he has a plaster ripper, but it'll have to wait until the fights reset. here's the conversation:


bamb@m wrote:
...another couple of questions:

1) now that you are plaster ripper, do you only have the option to pick between those other plaster rippers as opponents, or are you still fighting padawans and such to gain levels in the arena? (meaning, the only time you must fight your own rank is in the tournament)

2) are you unable to join a tournament now that you are in a rank where there are only a few brutes? do you really have to wait for a total of 64 brutes to become the same rank as you in order to start a tournament?




Yaboirobby wrote:
...My brute who is Sticking Plaster lost in that last tournament so I can't check right now.



as you can see by the part I highlighted, logic says that if he was in a tournament as plaster ripper but there are less than 64 currently, the rest must have been lower ranking brutes. just to be sure, that is why I am asking him to confirm when he joins the tournament tomorrow, and hopefully there will still be less than 64 plaster rippers at that time to ensure we can get the answer now instead of waiting for the same situation at richter thumper... (currently there are 24 rippers)
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 11:15

@bam, I entered a tourney with my Sticking Plaster about 10 hours ago and we still need 45 brutes to start. It looks like you were right.... you need all Sticking Plaster to start the tournament and since there are not enough to fill the tournament now, we will have to wait until others become Sticking Plaster Ripper as well (so that also means they do not fill void spaces with Padawans, but rather wait until the entire tourney can be filled with the same rank).

But while we wait, you can continue leveling and as your level increases in the game, it will also increase in the tourney. I remember starting out playing a level 3 in a tourney, but by the time It got time for the fight, he was level 6 or 7.
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 11:22

Quote :

But while we wait, you can continue leveling
This means that when finally a tourney starts you will have a big level advantage over the new brutes and a higher probability to win. First brutes keep their advantage.
So... seems you're lucky here to have quickly won first tourney, because you are likely to be one of the first BL on Muxxu brute then (if you keep it on for about 200 days... Razz )

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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 11:44

Sioc wrote:
Quote :

But while we wait, you can continue leveling
This means that when finally a tourney starts you will have a big level advantage over the new brutes and a higher probability to win. First brutes keep their advantage.
So... seems you're lucky here to have quickly won first tourney, because you are likely to be one of the first BL on Muxxu brute then (if you keep it on for about 200 days... Razz )
I will test that theory in the tournament to be sure.. but to be honest, I don't really want to wait for the tourney to fill up. I'd rather just stay where I am.
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 16:06

well be patient dudes! This game has a long "life" and it can become very interesting
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 16:14

all we'd need would be flooding the padawan tourney with lvl3 brutes, in order to get the playing brutes forward Wink

the more tourneys, the faster the game progresses...
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 16:24

harpyieklein wrote:
all we'd need would be flooding the padawan tourney with lvl3 brutes, in order to get the playing brutes forward Wink

the more tourneys, the faster the game progresses...

nice idea Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 16:32

not my intention when creating tons of accounts but that's what I do yet Razz
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 30 Mar 2010, 20:43

HongKongFui wrote:
not my intention when creating tons of accounts but that's what I do yet Razz

haha same here Very Happy

but my brutes are not lvl3. more lvl 6-8 ^^
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Wed 31 Mar 2010, 05:54

Yaboirobby wrote:
@bam, I entered a tourney with my Sticking Plaster about 10 hours ago and we still need 45 brutes to start. It looks like you were right.... you need all Sticking Plaster to start the tournament and since there are not enough to fill the tournament now, we will have to wait until others become Sticking Plaster Ripper as well (so that also means they do not fill void spaces with Padawans, but rather wait until the entire tourney can be filled with the same rank).

But while we wait, you can continue leveling and as your level increases in the game, it will also increase in the tourney. I remember starting out playing a level 3 in a tourney, but by the time It got time for the fight, he was level 6 or 7.


grrr, I see what you mean. I enlisted one of my DB to the tourney, and by the time I got around to training my second DB, the same tourney was still trying to fill up. so now I have both in the same tourney. let's hope they both go to the finals, so that at least one will progress to the next rank and the other will get 5 points What a Face
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Thu 01 Apr 2010, 07:21

update for sioc: I know you're monitoring, but I was wondering if we could get an update on your stats. we now have 2,256 batterers, and 67 rippers. since 64 of the 67 did not join a tourney yet (or perhaps they did, but I can't see), there are no thumpers yet. based on the number of batterers and rippers, are we still on track for 230 days, going slower than predicted, or faster?
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Thu 01 Apr 2010, 07:51

Yes, I have added a few more fitting parameters and updated accordingly the link in my first post.
The forecast now still gives approximately the same delay, i.e. 207 days until first BL the 18th October 2010.

From the file in attachment of the first post:
Spoiler:
 

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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Thu 01 Apr 2010, 08:22

thanks for the update, sioc!


from what I see in the "# of new brutes per day", the number of newly created brutes is already dropping off after just a few days?


MT is putting a bottleneck on their creation, thanks to the three account restriction. good thing we all know to click the flash box on the right side of the main muxxu page that shows five different games to properly disable data storage, right? Wink
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 06 Apr 2010, 09:04

Well, in theory, the fewest # of brutes needed to produce a Brutal Legend is 64*11 = 704 brutes

Brutes #1...64 Padawans in tournament => #1 advances to Batterer
Brutes #2...65 Padawans in tournament => #2 advances
...
Brutes #64...127 Padawans in tournament => #64 advances

Brutes #1...64 Batterers in tournament => #1 advances to Ripper

repeat 9 more times, so 64*11 = 704 brutes. But of course, it's going to be nowhere near that efficient. I'd say a million brutes and a few months will do the job.
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 06 Apr 2010, 13:18

Quote :

repeat 9 more times, so 64*11 = 704 brutes.
A bit less in fact: 63*11 + 1 = 694 brutes.
Quote :

But of course, it's going to be nowhere near that efficient.
Indeed...
This moreover assumes that 100% of the brutes enter their daily tournament. This would then take about 525 days to get the first BL, which is about 4 times the forecast with the same assumption (100% of brutes enter their daily tournament).
Spoiler:
 

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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 04 May 2010, 05:14

ok, we're about to have our first vengeful flame, assuming everyone in iron fist enrolls in the tourney (there are 63 as of the time I am making this message). how close are we to your most recently adjusted prediction timeline?
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 04 May 2010, 06:16

The actual forecast is 17th September, a bit faster than for the last forecast on April 1st (18th October). This is due to the fact that almost all high ranked brutes enter their daily tournaments (about 95% of the Iron Fist ones for example, for the previous forecast this parameter was set to 70%). However imo all these forecasts lie within the same margin of error.

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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 04 May 2010, 06:44

still no vengeful flame. there are still 63 fists and we have 512 richter thumpers...

I'm curious if there ever'll be a BL to be honest...
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 04 May 2010, 07:09

HongKongFui wrote:
I'm curious if there ever'll be a BL to be honest...
I'm sure there will. To get one BL it is only required in the long term that there are 694 brutes entering tournaments each day. Even if most of the players stop playing I think we're well above that threshold.

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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 04 May 2010, 08:28

BL sure there will be one but its just a question of time as sioc wrote.
my calculation are around 31 of september,
the more Player register in Tourneys in any lvl even 3, the more Tournaments will be opened, and this will lead to more Brutes getting new ranks.
so if the regestration of the Players stay the same we will have 1 new rank at least every 25 Days.
so if we count on every Player in high ranks registering his brute every day, we can use this algorithm :example for 64 brutes in IronFist, 384 in Richter thumper, 3072 S P Ripper:
(this is worst case, could be more , which means the date of first BL would be sooner)

1st Day:
1 brute goes form 64 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 1 VF
64x6 =384 in RichterThumper ==> 6 new IronFists
384x8 =3072 in SPRipper ==> 6x8 = 48 new RichterThumper

2nd Day:
1 brute goes form 69 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 2 VF
64x6 + 48=432 in RT ==> 6 new IronFists
........... ==> 48 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

3rd Day:
1 brute goes form 74 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 3 VF
64x6 + 2x48=480 in RT ==> 7 new IronFists
........... ==> 48 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

4th Day:
1 brute goes form 80 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 4 VF
64x6 + 3x48=528 in RT ==> 8 new IronFists
........... ==> 48 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

5th Day:
1 brute goes form 87 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 5 VF
64x6 + 4x48=576 in RT ==> 9 new IronFists
4096 in SPRipper ==> 64 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

6th Day:
1 brute goes form 95 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 6 VF
64x6 + 4x48 + 64=640 in RT ==> 10 new IronFists
4096 in SPRipper ==> 64 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

7th Day:
1 brute goes form 104 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 7 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +2x64=704 in RT ==> 11 new IronFists
4096 in SPRipper ==> 64 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

8th Day:
1 brute goes form 114 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 8 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +3x64=704 in RT ==> 12 new IronFists
4096 in SPRipper ==> 64 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

9th Day:
1 brute goes form 125 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 9 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +4x64 in RT ==> 13 new IronFists
4096 in SPRipper ==> 64 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

10th Day:
2 brute goes form 137 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 11 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +5x64 in RT ==> 14 new IronFists
4096 in SPRipper ==> 64 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

11th Day:
2 brute goes form 149 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 13 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 in RT ==> 15 new IronFists
4096 in SPRipper ==> 64 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

12th Day:
2 brute goes form 162 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 15 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +96 in RT ==> 16 new IronFists
6144 in SPRipper ==> 96 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

13th Day:
2 brute goes form 176 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 17 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +2x96 in RT ==> 18 new IronFists
6144 in SPRipper ==> 96 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

14th Day:
2 brute goes form 192 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 19 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +3x96 in RT ==> 19 new IronFists
6144 in SPRipper ==> 96 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

15th Day:
3 brute goes form 209 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 22 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +4x96 in RT ==> 21 new IronFists
6144 in SPRipper ==> 96 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

16th Day:
3 brute goes form 227 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 25 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +5x96 in RT ==> 22 new IronFists
6144 in SPRipper ==> 96 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

17th Day:
3 brute goes form 246 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 28 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +6x96 in RT ==> 24 new IronFists
8192 in SPRipper ==> 128 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

18th Day:
4 brute goes form 267 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 32 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +6x96 +128 in RT ==> 26 new IronFists
8192 in SPRipper ==> 128 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

19th Day:
4 brute goes form 289 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 36 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +6x96 +2x128 in RT ==> 28 new IronFists
8192 in SPRipper ==> 128 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

20th Day:
4 brute goes form 313 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 40 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +6x96 +3x128 in RT ==> 30 new IronFists
8192 in SPRipper ==> 128 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

21th Day:
5 brute goes form 339 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 45 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +6x96 +4x128 in RT ==> 32 new IronFists
8192 in SPRipper ==> 128 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

22th Day:
5 brute goes form 366 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 50 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +6x96 +5x128 in RT ==> 34 new IronFists
8192 in SPRipper ==> 128 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

23th Day:
6 brute goes form 395 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 56 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +6x96 +6x128 in RT ==> 36 new IronFists
8192 in SPRipper ==> 128 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

24th Day:
6 brute goes form 425 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 62 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +6x96 +7x128 in RT ==> 38 new IronFists
8192 in SPRipper ==> 128 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

25th Day:
7 brute goes form 457 IronFist to VengefulFlame ==> 69 VF
64x6 + 3x48 +6x64 +6x96 +8x128 in RT ==> 40 new IronFists
8192 in SPRipper ==> 128 new Richter thumper (should be more but this is the worst case)

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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 04 May 2010, 08:36

@ricotamanora: if you want to play a bit with this you can find in my first post of this topic a link towards a worksheet for that forecast that does it automatically with a few more fitting parameters. Getting more or less the same results though ;-)

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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Tue 04 May 2010, 08:47

oh no i see the link now , i should have checked it first , sorry sioc
but my Post is not bad, it´s nice to compare once a while for the next 3 Months to see if the calculation is right.
especialy if i can catch up with the Iron Fist guys.
i really want to be one of the first 64 Brutes in the first BL Tournament. it will be Legen dary
its not realistic but not impossible Twisted Evil

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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Thu 06 May 2010, 13:45

What I want to know is, what happens to the brute who wins BL? Are they forced to retire?
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PostSubject: Re: How long to wait before becoming BL   Thu 06 May 2010, 14:24

i do not know,
but igess they can start level up to unlimeted lvl after BL
Or maybe you have to choose even /another destiny after becomming BL and win the BL another time. with that there would be a counter of how many times you got BL Very Happy

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