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 dipo its war

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F.B.I
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PostSubject: dipo its war   Tue 20 Apr 2010, 11:22

dipo brute your mean
you keep vsing mybrute and
beating me its war
http://sioc-emquux.mybrute.com/cellule
2nd time you vs me
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NixxxoN
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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Tue 20 Apr 2010, 15:15

heh but man yout only level 77 do you expect to go high in the tourney? If its not dipo it will be someone else
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Nasic
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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Tue 20 Apr 2010, 15:31

Yeh it's all about levels, I recall Kickboxerkilla bitch slapping my brute out of the tourney 3-4 times in a row in 19h, pretty annoying but hey nothing you can do about it Razz

My new brute might get BL when lucky like some tourneys Nasic42 has been in so far (like the one where he got Dentist) but other than that this brute won't go anywhere at this lvl
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Sioc
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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Tue 20 Apr 2010, 17:23

There are about 850 brutes that are at least at level 80.
Assuming 30% of them enter their daily tournament, this makes about 250 brutes that may beat your brute (if we consider your brute being average).

This means that currently with your brute at level 80 (or close to that) you can expect on average to reach Iron Fist ranking (256 brutes remaining).

If you go beyond Iron Fist it means that either an abnormal proportion of these brutes got eliminated before, or/and you got lucky draws, or/and less than 30% of these brutes entered the tournament, or/and you got lucky seeds, or/and you got a good brute :-)

Actually at level 80 you need quite some luck to go beyond Iron Fist: assuming a tournament that starts at 5h, here are the probabilities of getting a title:
  • Desert Batterer = 88.28%
  • Sticking Plaster Ripper = 77.93%
  • Richter Thumper = 60.74%
  • Iron Fist = 36.72%
  • Vengeful Flame = 13.28%
  • Berserk Soul = 1.56%
  • Hemogoblin = 0.00%


So today getting Iron Fist was a pretty good day: under the hypothesis above you had a chance of 1/3 to get that title (and indeed your brute had to beat a level 93 to get there)...

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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Tue 20 Apr 2010, 18:08

^^ Mr Stats is back! :study:

(One of mine .... level 78 .... made 15h today, so he had a pretty good day as well Very Happy )

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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Tue 20 Apr 2010, 22:40

:-) and I'm back again...
I've made a little improved Monte Carlo model that goes beyond mean-field and incorporates fluctuations for lucky seeds, relative brute strength and exceptional early high-level brutes clash... still some uncertainties in the forecast because of some empirical fitting parameters. Anyway, this is interesting because there are now non-zero probabilities for each rank:
  • Desert Batterer 87.8340%
  • Sticking Plaster Ripper 77.1074%
  • Richter Thumper 59.6095%
  • Iron Fist 36.2045%
  • Vengeful Flame 14.5021%
  • Berserk Soul 3.4584%
  • Hemogoblin 0.7490%
  • Sword Swallower 0.1611%
  • Satan's Biceps 0.0346%
  • Dentist of Chaos 0.0074%
  • Brutal Legend 0.0016%

To have 1/2 chance to get BL you would have to enter tournaments for about 200 years (of course other players shouldn't level up either) What a Face

EDIT:
And I made the same forecast for 253 when it got BL under normal tournament circumstances (usual ratio of high level brutes entering). Surprisingly it has a rather high probability of becoming DOC (about 10%) but an extremely low one to get BL (about 0.008%). If the model can reproduce this it tends to confirm that 253's curse wasn't that much due to unluck... :-)
But the day 253 got BL very few high level brutes entered (only Dipo was at a higher level) and that day the probability to get BL was in fact not about 50% but only about 25%... !

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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Thu 22 Apr 2010, 10:42

my 64 made hemo 2 days ago


http://piw-5874072.mybrute.com/cellule
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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Thu 22 Apr 2010, 10:44

thats so crazy :pale:
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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Thu 22 Apr 2010, 11:02

lets all not sign up and let only ONE brute from forum sign up, lets see if a low one make bl
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F.B.I
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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Thu 22 Apr 2010, 11:05

ok i want my lvl 222 to win but that will be impossible everyone will still join xt i really wish that happen
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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Thu 22 Apr 2010, 11:21

my luca made hemo 2 days ago.. so lucky :
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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Thu 22 Apr 2010, 11:22

Quote :
Brutal Legend 0.0016%

It's possible. Didn't like seeing the 0 earlier Wink

But the type of brute changes those odds greatly, say a strength brute with implacable has a much better chance than a hyper agile at defeating higher levels (higher agility). Add flail, fierce, and hypnosis.

Though I'm surprised that my Stsin559 has reached the final 3 of 5 times I last entered her. Then everyone quickly beats on her in the arena to show how lucky she was, lol.
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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Thu 22 Apr 2010, 12:31

There may be a little bit more volatility than I expected. Revised figures for 6.aii's brute would be

Desert Batterer 89.13%
Sticking Plaster Ripper 79.69%
Richter Thumper 64.32%
Iron Fist 43.34%
Vengeful Flame 22.26%
Berserk Soul 8.63%
Hemogoblin 2.95%
Sword Swallower 0.95%
Satan's Biceps 0.29%
Dentist of Chaos 0.08%
Brutal Legend 0.02%

Eventhough there are 2 decimals here don't take it literally!!!
As Stsin said this depends on much more parameters and the figures here are just a rough approximation to get an idea of the order of magnitude (actually quite funny though)... !

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PostSubject: Re: dipo its war   Thu 22 Apr 2010, 15:16

nice you got there mr. stats Wink
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